UFC 116 Preview

It’s safe to say everyone in MMA is excited about Saturday’s UFC 116 main event. After Fedor Emelianenko lost at Strikeforce last weekend, most pundits and fight fans alike agree that tomorrow’s UFC title bout between Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin will determine the world’s new top heavyweight.

Let’s make our pick for this clash of the titans, which could shatter pay-per-view records, plus a couple of other bouts on the card.

UFC HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Brock Lesnar (4-1) vs Shane Carwin (12-0)

The main event is one of the tougher to predict in recent title-fight memory. The reason: Lesnar and Carwin have such similar games. Both guys come from accomplished collegiate wrestling backgrounds. Both rely on being bigger than everybody else; in fact, they’re the only two fighters in the UFC that require custom-made XXXL cloves to fit their giant hands.

If we dig deeper, however, we can in fact find some subtle differences. Lesnar, for example, has a superior grappling pedigree; he’s an NCAA Division-I champ whereas Carwin was Division-II. If the fight goes to the ground, Big Brock may have a slight strength advantage. In the striking game, I think the edge goes to Carwin. Both guys hit hard but Carwin has shown crisp boxing and superior one-punch knockout power. No one has lasted past the first round against him.

Doctors who treated Lesnar’s life-threatening illness over the last year claim he was functioning at 60 per cent of his capacity before they fixed him. That’s frightening; could Lesnar actually improve almost twofold? Still, I don’t think we’ll see that improvement on Saturday.

The pick: Shane Carwin. Lesnar may have ring rust to contend with after a one-year layoff. Carwin is sharp and hungry after destroying Frank Mir in March. He also hits harder than anyone Brock has ever faced. Do we definitely know that Brock can take a punch? Not necessarily.

Given that Brock’s usually massive strength advantage won’t be as much as a factor against the giant Carwin and that Carwin’s hands are so heavy, I see Carwin pulling off the minor upset. I also suspect this fight will be over in the first minute or so.

Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-1, 2 NC) vs Chris Leben (20-6)

Almost a year to the day after making his UFC debut, international MMA and Judo star Yoshiro “Sexyama” Akiyama was set for an epic battle with Wanderlei Silva. But the Axe Murderer went down with an injury and Chris Leben replaces him just two weeks after his last bout.

The pick: Chris Leben. Akiyama was upset to hear he was matched with Leben, as he feels a win over the Crippler won’t advance his career.  While I don’t think he should complain, I think Akiyama is right. He has nothing to gain and everything to lose from the bout. The aggressive, iron-jawed Leben has no expectations and will come out angry after Akiyama’s comments insulted him. I think he’ll pull out the win.

George Sotiropoulos (12-2) vs Kurt Pellegrino (15-4)

Two rising stars on big winning streaks meet as grappling aces George Sotiropoulos and Kurt Pellegrino meet in an important lightweight battle.

The pick: George Sotiropoulos. Nothing against Pellegrino but I believe he’s hit his ceiling. His ground skills are good but his striking is average at best. The rangy Sotiropoulos is a BJJ black belt but his boxing is underrated. I think he has the advantage wherever this fight goes.

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